What does the future hold for the Saints? Change
While the season is not technically over (the Saints head to Tampa to take on another divisional opponent this Sunday), the team’s playoff hopes were brushed aside in their defeat to the Atlanta Falcons yesterday. I feel it is safe to say that for any fan reading this the season didn’t go as planned.
This team was hyped up much like the Eagles “dream team” of a few years ago. Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro were supposed to pair as the best (or second best depending on who you asked) safety tandem in the NFL. Everything was supposed to go right, but it didn’t. If there were to be a singular phrase to describe this year it would be Murphy’s Law.
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Everything that could go wrong, did, at almost every turn. Nick Toon tripping over his own feet leading to a game-sealing interception against the Falcons Sunday was only one of many examples (still a pass Drew Brees should not have thrown).
Blame for this season can be pointed in a plethora of directions and I’m not going to start here. After the season has concluded I will write a review of the coaching staff and players.
What the Saints have coming up this offseason is a lot of change. During the Saints post-game press conference you could definitely feel it. Now, I don’t think this team needs a complete rebuild, but it is obvious that some players are aging and that we lack depth in many areas. We are who our record says we are.
Katherine Terrell, a writer at the Times Picayune, noticed the same thing and commented about it on Twitter.
This was alluded to in today's post-game presser, but expect big changes for the Saints in the offseason. What those are yet, I don't know
— Katherine Terrell (@Kat_Terrell) December 22, 2014
What type of changes can we expect?
First and foremost, before we start finding new players in free agency and the draft we must clear cap space. NFL salary cap analysts expect the cap to continue the rise that we saw last offseason with an estimation of $140 million being 2015’s number (Per OverTheCap). Even with this large increase, the Saints still find themselves in a huge hole.
$20,000,000.00. You read that number right, $20 million is how much the Saints are predicted to be in the hole this upcoming offseason. While the Saints have had tough numbers to crunch before they’ve never been this large. However, I think this year it will be the easiest in terms of “getting under”. (Other references list the team at $18.9 million in the red)
Oct 30, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; New Orleans Saints outside linebacker Junior Galette (93) and nose tackle Brodrick Bunkley (77) react in the fourth quarter. The Saints defeated the Panthers 28-10 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Junior Galette just received a massive contract this past year to lock him with the team until the 2019 season. When looking at the contract one year stands out the most. In 2015, Galette is set to have a cap number of $15.45 million and a roster bonus of $12.5 million.
Mickey Loomis might take that $12.5 million roster bonus and convert it to a signing bonus. By doing this, the signing bonus would be stretched over the remainder of Galette’s contract ($2.5 million each year). Instantly the Saints save $10 million and we’ve only made one move. Other players qualify for this as well including Curtis Lofton and Byrd.
New Orleans is also carrying some cap roll-over into next season. So, with the three above roster bonus conversions (which are once again Mickey Loomis simply pushing money to a later date) we are in theory already back in the black for the salary cap. We’ve also yet to restructure Brees’ contract.
Everything I’ve suggested is of course only a possibility, but I don’t think this year will prove to be as grim financially as some in years past. The key here is how much money the Saints actually free up and how determined they are to make 2015-2016 “the year”. The recent trend for New Orleans has always been to forego the future to reign in the present.
Who stays? Who goes? Who comes in?
These are far more difficult questions to answer than the cap one is. Many names have been brought up for cuts such as Ben Grubbs, Jahri Evans, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston and Brodrick Bunkley. Many of those names are likely to become restructures as much as they are cuts. Payton likes his veteran players, but even he has said that people are playing for their jobs.
In the upcoming draft the Saints should receive compensatory picks due to their loss of more players than they brought in. Combine this, with what hopefully will be a solid free agency period in which the Saints focus on depth, and this team could be re-loaded for the 2015-2016 season.
It is hard to predict what will take place in the months to come. The Saints strategy of “win now” will probably continue as long as they have Brees. This one player alone makes them a Superbowl contender as long as they can surround him with a strong supporting cast.
One thing is certain going into 2015. This team will see many changes as it attempts to rebound from a very disappointing season. Thanks for reading everyone. As always, I welcome your comments, critiques and all around banter. Who Dat and God Bless.