Saints Respond on Road, but Can They Show Up at Home?

Last year the Saints had a (supposed) monkey on their backs that they couldn’t seem to shake off. At least, that is what most media outlets kept telling us. Fast forward to week 16 of the NFL season and the Saints have a new problem: winning at home. The Saints have lost four in a row at home this season and sit at 3-4 in the Superdome.

While they share the same record on the road as they do in the Superdome, it is fair to say that the team’s wins, and losses, on the road have been  more impressive with the exception of the Dallas Cowboys game. Monday Night’s win in Chicago combined with beautiful performances in Carolina and Pittsburgh have brought re-surging optimist to a fanbase that at many points during this season have all but given up hope.

We can all see it, but can the Saints? This was something brought up to Drew Brees during his post-game interview against the Bears. When asked about the Saints playing the Falcons at home and the team recently posting a string of tough losses Brees replied “It’s the Falcons, divisional opponent. They beat us first game of the season at their place in overtime. We always have battles with those guys and (they are) typically one possession games. There are always a lot at stake. You wanna be playing for a lot at the end of the year and we are right now, we control our own destiny. That’s all that matters. No bigger game than the one that’s coming up.”

You wanna be playing for a lot at the end of the year and we are right now, we control our own destiny. No bigger game than the one that’s coming up. – Drew Brees

Recognizing in word is one thing. What Saints fans want, no need, is for this team to come back to the Dome and play like the dominant team fans had grown accustomed to seeing. As hard as it is to believe, the Saints have simply been a more dominant team on the road. With the exception of the Green Bay Packers game the Saints have simply either gotten behind early or have been inconsistent and unable to play a full 60 minute football game. Let’s take a look at some key stats. Defensively the unit has played noticeably better on the road. The key to the Saints road success can be tied to the team’s lack of early deficits. Opening up with a 17-0 hole to climb out of against Carolina will make even the most potent offense bland and one dimensional.

Defense

• Home
  • 13 Sacks | 16 Tackles For Loss | 27 Pass Deflections | 3 Interceptions | 7 Forced Fumbles
• Away
  • 18 Sacks | 14 Tackles For Loss | 30 Pass Deflections | 8 Interceptions | 4 Forced Fumbles

Now, here are the offensive stats. Keep in mind, the Saints have played an equal number of games both at home and on the road. The most noticeable stat difference that will catch your eye is the yards per attempt in the passing statistics. When there is a large disparity in numbers like we have here, but similar yardage totals, we can deduce that the Saints are passing more (more attempts) at home than on the road.

Therein lies the answer. New Orleans has passed the ball 38 times more at home than on the road. That is a full game’s worth of passing for Drew Brees. There is only one reason for this. Playing from a deficit at home forces the Saints to become one dimensional as they attempt to chase opposing team’s leads.

Offense

• Home
  • 69.9% Pass Completion | 2,120 Yards | 7.1 Yards Per Attempt | 15 Passing TDs | 7 Interceptions | 11 Sacks | 4.7 Yards Per Attempt Rushing | 5 TDs | 4 Fumbles
• Away
  • 70.1% Pass Completion | 2,105 Yards | 8.1 Yards Per Attempt | 16 Passing TDs | 5 Interceptions | 12 Sacks| 4.6 Yards Per Attempt Rushing | 8 TDs | 2 Fumbles

Dec 15, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) throws in the first half of their game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

With a prolific passing attack led by Matt Ryan the Falcons will attempt to copy the successful gameplan of the teams who have beat New Orleans at home. Atlanta will come into New Orleans looking to sweep their division rival for the first time in the Sean Payton Era. There is a reason this has yet to happen, however.

As I’ve stated many times on Who Dat Confessional, divisional games are almost impossible to predict. It isn’t unusual for teams to split divisional games during the season. Earlier in the NFL season we saw the Washington Redskins topple the Dallas Cowboys. New Orleans was trampled by a Carolina team at home, yet just a few weeks prior the Saints delivered the same treatment to the Panthers in the exact same circumstance. With that in mind, maybe that is why the Saints have a chance this week.

The trend of losing at home could stop this Sunday. The leaders of this team must step up. Drew Brees talked about the importance of this game in his interview, Cameron Jordan talked about it on Twitter and everyone in Who Dat Nation knows how important this game is. The team will have to limit their mistakes, leaders will have to step up when mistakes are made and everyone will have to be mentally prepared.

Even former Saints are getting behind the team in confidence, as evidenced here by Scott Shanle‘s tweet.

One thing is certain. This game is the New Orleans Saints season. If they lose, almost all hope is lost for a playoff run and a chance to salvage this season. If they win, they’ll finally be in a position to right the proverbial ship make a run at the playoffs (assuming Carolina also loses Sunday in conjunction with a Saints win. If both teams win Sunday, the Saints will need to win out).

Even with the home woes the Saints have dealt with this season, I’d rather this game be played in no other stadium than the Superdome. Saints, Falcons, season on the line and pride for an entire year, what else would you expect from the NFL’s most underrated rivalry? I encourage you to follow and interact with me via social media, and for that simply visit my bio. As always, I welcome your comments, critiques and all around banter. God bless, and Who Dat!