Anthony Davis and the Future of Basketball in New Orleans
Pelicans fans need to understand something very important: Anthony Davis will be one of the greatest basketball players ever by the time he retires.
Davis won’t just win MVPs, DPOYs and make All-NBA teams, he will become a legend. Davis will be the kind of legend that transcends the NBA.
The kind of legend that becomes contagious, the kind of legend that enters every American household and forces them to remember him as a cultural icon as well as an athletic one.
Kids will play pick-up-games and yell “BROW!” as they block each other’s shots. Davis will host Saturday Night Live, break records and have books written about how quickly he did it.
He will make millions and millions of dollars and his name will become a brand. Just like with Magic, Bird, Jordan, LeBron and Kobe, Anthony Davis will cement his name in history.
Davis is already on track to become this kind of legend. To prove it let’s take a look at his past, present, and eventually project his future.
Past
Feb 22, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) passes the ball away from New Orleans Hornets forward Anthony Davis (23) during the first half at the New Orleans Arena. Dallas defeated New Orleans 104-100. Mandatory Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
When Davis started high school he was a scrawny 6’2” point guard, but by the time he graduated he had grown to 6’10” and was playing as a big man, while retaining his guard-like agility and skill set.
He went from being an off the radar potential D-Leaguer to the most coveted high school recruit in the nation.
Davis committed to Kentucky for his one and only college season. In his freshman year he was the 2011-2012 AP Player of the year, consensus First Team All-American, NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player, he won the 2011-2012 Rupp Trophy, was the NABC Defensive player of the year and won the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship.
He was also 1st in the Association in 2-Point field goals, Offensive rebounds, Defensive rebound percentage, Player Efficiency Rating, Free Throw attempts, Defensive win shares, Total Win Shares, Defensive rating, and Offensive rating.
His outstanding college play earned him a spot on the 2012 USA Men’s Olympic Basketball Team, and he won a gold medal with them only a few months after winning the NCAA championship.
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Davis was going to be the clear #1 overall pick in the 2012 NBA draft, and benefited significantly from being mentored by greats like Kobe and LeBron that summer.
That same summer the Pelicans won a coin toss with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and received the 1st pick in the 2012 NBA draft. The Cavs had won the year before, and would go on to win the two years after, so it’s impossible to explain just how lucky the Pelicans were on that historic day.
They drafted a future NBA legend based on the fact that they called “heads”.
Davis had a very underrated rookie season, he averaged 16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per 36 minutes and he had the highest Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for a 19-year-old in NBA history (21.7).
Davis missed time with injuries though, and he was on a minutes restriction from Monty Williams. Damian Lillard won Rookie of the Year and Davis fell slightly under the radar that summer.
Last season Davis established himself as a force to be reckoned with. He averaged 20.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.8 blocks while playing just under 36 minutes.
He also achieved the highest PER in NBA history for a 20-year-old (26.5) and made his first NBA All-Star team. In March, Davis recorded a historic 41 point 20 rebound game against the Boston Celtics, making him the 2nd youngest player to achieve a 40-20 game in NBA history; trailing only Shaquille O’Neil by a few days.
The following summer he joined Team USA to compete in the FIBA World Cup. This time Davis led the team instead of learning from it.
Davis currently has an NCAA title, Olympic Gold Medal, and FIBA world cup. If he wins an NBA championship he will be the first player in NBA history to collect all four.
The Present
Oct 28, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) dunks against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter of a game at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
This season Davis has taken yet another leap. As of today he is averaging 24.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 2.7 blocks.
He is not only on pace to have the highest PER for a 21-year-old in NBA history, he is on pace to have the highest PER for any player ever in NBA history (31.8).
Davis sat out the All-Star game, but he was also 3rd place in the league in total votes collecting over 1,300,000 nominations worldwide.
The best way to fully appreciate the level Davis is playing at so early in his career is to compare him to other legendary NBA big men at the same age. Here is a table showing just how good past NBA legends were at the age of 21.
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Blocks | FG% | PER |
| Kevin Garnett | 18.5 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 49% | 20.4 |
| Tim Duncan | 21.1 | 11.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 54% | 22.6 |
| Dwight Howard | 17.6 | 12.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 60% | 21.1 |
| Charles Barkley | 14.0 | 8.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 54% | 18.3 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 17.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 46% | 17.5 |
| Anthony Davis | 24.5 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 55% | 31.8 |
What you can deduce from this comparison is that Davis is probably the worst passer of the six, and his rebounding isn’t extraordinary, but outside of that he is far more skilled than most other legendary big men were at his age.
Davis is on pace to improve at the same rate they did, and reach a prime that is unprecedented for a player of his size and mobility.
As Pelicans GM Dell Demps said this past week “The ceiling just keeps getting higher.”
The Future:
Feb 6, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) and New Orleans Pelicans guard Tyreke Evans (1) celebrate after the game winning shot against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
The argument against Davis is that he has reached, or at least come close to his prime already. That these big men simply took longer than him to achieve stardom and Davis won’t outshine them in the near future.
The Problem with this argument is that Davis has an extraordinary work ethic and there are still huge parts of his game he hasn’t even scratched the surface of.
Pelicans coaches remarked on the fact that the day after returning home from winning the FIBA World Cup, Davis drove to the practice facility to lift weights and go over plays.
He clearly has the drive, so where can he improve?
Defense: Davis’ defensive ability has been questioned since his sophomore season. He is far from perfect on that end and doesn’t deserve to be in DPOY conversation quite yet.
Davis has received criticism for his rim protection, which makes sense because he isn’t our rim protector. Omer Asik is the Pelican’s rim protector, and by that I mean he stands by the rim and protects it.
Anthony Davis protects the rest of the court, he roams inside the arc altering shots and defending passing lanes.
Marc Gasol allowed his opponents to shoot 51.2% at the rim last season; precisely because he has the same defensive role that Davis does.
Davis still has room to improve though; he is young and misses many rotations. He still bites far too often on pump-fakes and jabs. At times Davis is more interested in getting a block then a defensive stop.
As he grows stronger and smarter he will become more able to defend physically imposing big men, and he will improve his defensive IQ as well.
Passing: Davis only averages 1.7 assists a game. He isn’t a bad passer, but his playmaking IQ can still improve significantly. He has made some fantastic passes in his career but he has never had a game with more than 5 assists.
Once Davis becomes more comfortable with the ball and raises his usage rate he will become a player you can run an offense through.
Shooting: Last week Davis hit an insane last second three-point buzzer-beater against the Thunder.
Davis was all smiles when asked about his shot and mentioned it was his first three of the season, it seemed like Davis was waiting for one of them to finally fall.
Davis has mentioned in the past he wants to add a three-point shot and his already elite jump shot mechanics should allow him to.
Channing Frye made exactly 20 threes in his first four NBA seasons, in his 5th NBA season he stepped behind the line and converted his long twos into three pointers.
Frye made 172 in that season alone, proving that big men should be adapting to the modern NBA and shooting from deep.
Dec 21, 2014; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka (9) drives to the basket against New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) during the first quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Serge Ibaka, Chris Bosh and Lamarcus Aldridge have taken similar steps later in their careers, when Davis takes that leap he will be one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the league.
He has also increased his midrange percentage from 29.4% his rookie season to 40.1% last season, and his shooting higher than 45% form midrange this season.
Usage: Anthony Davis currently has the 29th highest usage rate in the league at 25.2%. In fact, he isn’t even the highest usage player on his team.
Tyreke Evans currently has a 26.0% usage rate and Davis is far more efficient than him. Davis should be hogging the ball more, but he’s still young and passive at times.
As Davis continues to grow and develop he will begin to demand more attention. Anthony Davis is currently 1st in the entire NBA in shots made per game at 9.5 but he is 11th in shots attempted at 17.2.
Davis also has the second highest FG% in the league for players taking at least 10 shots a game, only trailing Dwight Howard. The more he shoots, the more he will score.
Clearly Davis has room for improvement and an attitude to match. The next step is to project what his stats will look like by the time he reaches his peak.
To do this I have taken the PPG stats of the big men shown earlier and subtracted them from their respective players highest career PPG, then averaged the differences.
The average improvement was 7.7 points for our legendary big men. The average improvement in RPG was 3.3.
If Davis uses his work ethic to its full potential and improves at the average rate these big men did he would average 32.2 points and 13.6 rebounds in his prime.
This isn’t a serious estimate so much as an example of just how large the gap is in their skill levels at 21. For arguments sake lets say Davis is able to improve at just HALF the rate these big men did.
If Anthony Davis does that he will average 28.3 points and 11.9 rebounds in his prime, and still absolutely wreck the league.
It’s impossible to predict the future, but if Davis’ past and present are indicative of his potential we are looking at a first ballot hall of famer and an all-time legend.
Davis will win MVPs, Davis will win DPOYS, Davis will have one of the most spectacular primes in NBA history and break dozens of records. Eventually, Davis will set his eyes on the NBA championship and stop at nothing until he gets one.
We all get to watch it happen…….