Pelicans Guard Jrue Holiday and the Robert Parish Theory
For years I’ve felt like Jrue Holiday was underrated, but for years one question always made me shut up about it. Where does he rank among Point Guards?
And then I would think about it, or I would start making lists, or I would compare his stats to other point guards. After that, when the non-bias version of me realized he generally ranked as the 13-17th best Point Guard in the league statistically, I stopped thinking he was underrated.
How can the 15th best point guard in the league be underrated? No one says he’s terrible, no one says he’s elite. Is it possible, that for the first time in sports history someone was… properly rated?
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But then I’d watch another game. I would watch him battle these specialized, one-dimensional “elite” point guards and my first thought when the game ended was always the same. Jrue Holiday is underrated, I know he is.
And it made no sense to me. Until I read Bill Simmons “Book of Basketball” and heard him talk about Robert Parish. He made three fantastic and eye-opening points about Robert Parish’s game which, after I read them, put everything into perspective.
"1. Robert Parish was good at almost everything, but never truly elite in one area. 2. Robert Parish had the ability match the production of greater NBA Centers, meaning that though he might face a 25-10 guy, being just a 15-10 guy, Parish could hold the greater Center to 15-10 whenever they played. 3. (this is the best one) If Bill Gates created a game where you could simulate a fantasy draft of every player in NBA history, you would purposefully pass on Wilt, Hakeem, Shaq, Moses, and other great Centers in the first round (picking a legendary perimeter player instead) because you would want to target Parish by round four."
Eureka! I had my moment of clarity. Jrue Holiday is the modern day Robert Parish! So here’s what I’m going to do now; I’m going to breakdown Jrue’s game using these three observations about Parish, proving he is one of the most underrated players in the league (also proving I’m not just schizophrenic in the process).
1. The Jack of All Trades Argument
How many point guards in the league can you name who are above average three-point shooters, lockdown defenders, and average at least 6 assists per game. Y
ou can name four: Chris Paul, Jeff Teague, Eric Bledsoe, and Jrue Holiday. four out of 30 starting point guards in the league are capable of these three things. Go through the list, almost every elite point guard lacks in one of these areas.
Russell Westbrook, John Wall, and Derrick Rose are inconsistent three point shooters.
Damian Lillard, Ty Lawson and Steph Curry are below average defenders. Isaiah Thomas, Kemba Walker, and Kyrie Irving are all less than elite distributers (Bledsoe isn’t great either but I’ll let him slip by because he broke 6 a game).
Is Jrue Holiday “better than these guys in a vacuum?
Of course not, but is he more versatile? Is he more able to gel and fit with other great players? Is he the perfect point guard for a title contender? Should you pass on Kyrie and Wall in round 2, and instead draft Paul George so you can target Jrue in round four?
Dec 21, 2014; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday (11) knocks the ball out of the hands of Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
The answer to all of these is yes, but I’m getting ahead of myself.
All I want to do right now is show how rare “complete” point guards are. There are tons of elite all-around style superstar wings (LeBron James, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler) and tons of all around style big men (Anthony Davis, Demarcus Cousins, Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol).
So why aren’t the elite point guards of the NBA the same way?
Why do Curry, Westbrook, and Kyrie all lack in one of these areas despite being Hall of Fame level players?
Why is Chris Paul the only superstar point guard who can do all three? I have no idea, but if the supply is low the demand is high, meaning Jrue’s demand is a little higher than you might think.
2. You Can’t Handle the Jruth (Because His Defense is Too Good)
I’m not a huge fan of defensive stats as they relate to individual players. Most of them only account for how good the team was defensively while that player was on the floor.
With the Pelicans, wouldn’t our best looking defensive players just be the ones who play with Omer Asik and Anthony Davis the most?
Instead I’m going to show you some clips of Jrue’s defense, and outline which of his qualities make him such an elite presence on that end of the floor.
Watch this first clip from Jrue’s Philly days. His large 6’4″ frame and above average strength allow him to guard taller shooting guard and quicker point guards. I first want to show you his off-ball defense, so watch him defend one of the best off-ball players ever in Ray Allen.
In the first play it takes Jrue just a split second to read the offense and realize Allen is about to cut behind the paint for a corner three. Jrue preemptively sprints into position, and stays glued to Ray despite receiving three off ball screens from 6’11” 250 pound Kevin Garnett (most of them illegal by the way).
With KG struggling to slow Jrue, and Allen glued to the corner Rondo is left thinking “Will someone please get open?!” before being forced into a terrible contested two.
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In the second play the Celtics try and screen Jrue at the perimeter in hopes that they can get an easy bucket.
Notice how the paint is wide open at the start of the play? Most players would lose Allen here and he would be able to cut directly for an easy layup.
Jrue sees it coming and once again stays right on Allen. Once that option is dead, Allen calls for another screen by the low post, and tries to sprint out for an open three. Jrue couldn’t care less, he avoids the pick and leaves the Celtics with, once again, a terrible, inefficient, contested two.
How annoyed are you if you’re Allen and KG right now? You’re a Hall-of-Fame level pick and pop combo who can’t shake some 6’4″ point guard off your tail for an open look.
Having a guy like that who can shut down ones and twos off the ball is a way bigger asset than people realize, and it frustrated offenses into taking bad shots.
Here’s another clip of Jrue’s defense. We just saw him chase bigger guys off the ball, now watch what happens when smaller guys try to take him off the dribble.
See what I mean? He’s just too strong and too smart to be taken advantage of. Bigger guys can’t shoot over him because he’s always right on their tail, and smaller, faster guys can’t blow past him because of his strength and intelligence.
NBA history tells us that the most important defensive position on the floor is Center.
Rim protection and help defense come most easily to Centers, so that makes perfect sense, but answer this question for me: If your best defensive player was a rim protector (maybe someone like Anthony Davis or Omer Asik), who would you want your 2nd best defender to be?
Point Guard.
Especially in today’s league, with so many elite scoring point guards running their teams offenses, having a lockdown guy at the one is a hugely underrated aspect of getting a stop.
That’s the second reason Jrue is so underrated, maybe Westbrook averages 27 and 8 against everyone else, but he’s only getting 19 and 7 against the Pelicans.
Maybe Kyrie Irving was about to hit a game winning three, but he missed it because Jrue preemptively stopped him like he did to Ray in clip #1.
Gene Hackman said it best in Hoosiers when he told one of his players “Stick with your man. Think of him as chewing gum. By the end of the game, I want you to know what flavor he is ok?”
Jrue knows everyone’s favor of gum.
3. The 4th Round Theory
Let me remind you of this concept.
Bill Simmons suggested that in an All-Time NBA draft, he would pass on drafting a legendary big man like Wilt or Shaq or Hakeem, because he knows Robert Parish would be available in round four.
This doesn’t mean you’re drafting Parish instead of a legendary big, it means you’re choosing to draft a legendary wing, because you’re planning for Parish in the future.
Here’s an example. Lets say it’s round one, Kobe Bryant and Shaq are left.
Conventionally, people would say “always go with the big man” but instead were going to take Kobe because we know Parish is available later. Later, when it’s round four, Robert Parish and Manu Ginobli are available. We take Parish, and the guy who took Shaq gets Manu.
Now we’re playing each other. Shaq, who’s been averaging 30-15 against the rest of the league, is held to just 22-11 by Parish, while Kobe drops 35 on Manu. That’s the Parish theory.
Dec 12, 2014; San Antonio, TX, USA; Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Kobe Bryant (24) looks to pass against San Antonio Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili (20) during the first half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Now let’s say a draft takes place with only current players. In a league over-saturated with elite scoring Point Guards, you would be smart to take a wing player to star big man in the first round.
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You could plan to target Jrue later on in the draft, because you know just like Parish, he’s a jack of all trades, master of none, who’s going to battle so hard he brings all those other first round Point Guards down to his level.
Jrue isn’t the kind of player you draft over a superstar, but he’s the kind of player who would make you pick another superstar, in order to target him later on. If you’re smart.
The Catch:
The biggest flaw in here? Jrue has faced terrible injury luck the past few seasons. Playing less than 70 out of his last 160 games. When healthy? he’s everything I claimed he is, a rare all around breed of playmaker, an elite and versatile defender, and the perfect point guard for a championship level team. When injured? he sits on the bench in a suit.
Next season, after months of rehab, and a new more conservative minutes system run by Head Coach Gentry, we might finally see his potential as the modern-day Robert Parish of point guards. Until then? I’m left watching highlights of him chasing around Ray Allen in the first round.
My prediction? Jrue takes a huge leap this season. He puts together everything I just showed you and more, he’s proves to the world that his “ranking” among point guards is irrelevant. Why is it irrelevant? Because rankings don’t win championships, players do, and Jrue is a more special player then the world realizes right now.
All he needs to do is show us……