Refuting the Myth: Tyreke Evans has Regressed
Let me be very clear, Tyreke Evans‘ career has been a let down.
He had the potential to be one of the best players in the league, and he never put it together enough to take that step. He’s a monster 6’6″ guard with some of the deadliest handles in the league, and is so agile and athletic he makes simply getting to the basket look frustratingly easy.
If you’re a Kings fan, and you’re looking for solace in the fact that you spent a season going “we found a superstar!” in 2010, I can’t give that to you, no one can.
What I can do is prove two things:
1. Tyreke Evans never regressed.
2. Tyreke Evans’ best basketball is still ahead of him.
Tyreke Evans Never Regressed:
I know everyone looks at his career stats, their eyes drift towards the “Point Per Game” section, and they become convinced he must be getting worse.
More points = better player right?
Dec 30, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Tyreke Evans (1) celebrates after a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the fourth quarter of a game at Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Suns 110-106. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Actually, Tyreke’s rookie stats were heavily inflated that season because his team was beyond terrible.
His best two teammates who played for at least half the season? Beno Udrih and Jason Thompson. They did play at the 7th fastest pace in the league, but they only won 25 games.
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Have Tyreke handle the ball on every possession, give him D-league level teammates, play at a fast pace, and I promise he could still average at least 20-5-5.
The catch?
You’re probably going to win 25 games.
When you look at Tyreke’s per 36 minute stats, combined with his progressively lower usage rate, you’ll see that he’s fundamentally never gotten worse, the Kings just starting using him wrong.
| Season | Games | FG% | 3PT% | 2PT% | Assists | Rebounds | Points | Turnovers | Usage% |
| ’09-’10 | 72 | 45% | 25% | 48% | 5.6 | 5.1 | 19.5 | 2.9 | 26.2% |
| ’10-’11 | 57 | 40% | 29% | 43% | 5.5 | 4.7 | 17.3 | 3.1 | 25.3% |
| ’11-’12 | 63 | 45% | 20% | 48% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 17.3 | 2.8 | 23.8% |
| ’12-’13 | 65 | 47% | 33% | 50% | 4.1 | 5.1 | 17.6 | 2.3 | 22.3% |
| ’13-’14 | 72 | 43% | 22% | 46% | 6.4 | 6.1 | 18.5 | 3.1 | 27.1% |
| 14′-15′ | 79 | 44% | 30% | 48% | 7.0 | 5.6 | 17.6 | 3.3 | 26.1% |
Look at rookie Tyreke vs. the Tyreke of last season.
Which would you rather have? a 19-5-5 guy or a 17-5-7 guy who shoots better from deep, and succeeded on a winning team? Those two assists are much more valuable than those two inflated points.
Now you’re thinking, “Okay, last season he clearly improved as a distributer, but he regressed earlier in his career before making a comeback.”
This is also false.
When you look at Tyreke’s usage rate, it becomes clear that the reason he took a slight statistical dip in the middle of his career is because he stopped being used the right way.
The Kings (known for their good analytical decisions) decided to play Tyreke as a small forward during his later years in SacTown, forcing a dip in his usage rate, while playing a more off-ball style.
Look at his turnovers, did Tyreke become a more efficient passer? No, he just didn’t get to touch the ball as much.
Apr 14, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Tyreke Evans (1) against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half of a game at Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Thunder 101-89. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Okay, now we’ve seen that except for a very nice bump in assists last season, Tyreke has fundamentally been the exact same player. He never regressed, he was just unable to make the leap. Now we’re going to prove #2…..
Tyreke Evans Best Basketball is Still Ahead of Him:
James Harden, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and Tyreke Evans were the only players in the league to average at least 17 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds per 36 minutes. Now that’s a pretty arbitrary stat, and doesn’t mean much, but it does show that Tyreke’s kind of versatility is rare among modern players.
Here’s a stat that isn’t arbitrary at all, this chart is from the NBA’s advanced player tracking statistics page, and shows which players lead the league in drives.
| Player | PPG on Drives | Team PPG on Drives | Total PPG on Drives |
| James Harden | 8.00 | 14.30 | 636 |
| Damien Lillard | 6.70 | 12.00 | 553 |
| Tyreke Evans | 6.80 | 12.80 | 539 |
| Kyrie Irving | 7.00 | 11.70 | 521 |
| LeBron James | 7.60 | 11.80 | 517 |
Clearly no one can touch Harden in this category, but after him Tyreke is right there with LeBron, Lillard and Kyrie as one of the best in the league at creating offense off drives.
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Obviously Tyreke isn’t as complete as the rest of these players, but he’s also the only one not on a maximum contract. As far as economic ways to create offense go, Tyreke has pretty good bang for his buck.
This ability to create is what allowed Tyreke to take a leap this season. For the first time since his rookie year, he was leading an offense and putting up respectable numbers.
The difference?
His rookie season he was gunning for himself, this season he was the primary playmaker for a playoff team.
Apr 15, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) celebrates with guard Tyreke Evans (1) after defeating the San Antonio Spurs at the Smoothie King Center.The Pelicans won 108-103 to earn the eight seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Now all of this so far has been backed by stats.
Per 36 proved he his production has always been relatively the same, Usage Rate % proved the Kings failed to harness his talent, and the NBA’s Advanced Driving Statistics proved he’s the most affordable super-slasher in the league.
So let me off the hook for a minute and allow me to speculate.
My prediction? Next season will be Tyreke’s best.
He was able to hang with Lillard, Kyrie, and LeBron on drives this season despite the fact that the Pelicans played at the 27th fastest pace in the league.
Someone as athletic as Tyreke should never be playing on such a slow team, and the hiring of Head Coach Alvin Gentry should be able to correct that.
Tyreke won’t ever be a star, and he won’t ever live up to the expectations set during his rookie season. Regardless, he never regressed, he never got worse, and he emerged last season as the best version of himself we’ve seen yet.
With Gentry at the helm next year, an even better version should be waiting……………
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