The New Orleans Pelicans and the Cost of Continuity

Here’s my (kinda crazy) analogy for the value of continuity in professional basketball.

Continuity is like a really steady and reliable girlfriend. You’ve learned each other’s idiosyncrasies, and you’re at the point where the longer you stay together, the stronger you become as a unit. Continuity is the kind of person you marry.

Now there’s always the other option, you could leave that steady girlfriend for a more exciting and unpredictable girl you just met (blow up the team and sign a free agent), and maybe your buddies think you made a good decision (casual NBA fans, NOLA.com Pelicans Beat Writer Jimmy Smith), but your mother (hardcore NBA fans, not Jimmy Smith) feels you made a mistake.

Now the new girl might work out, but she also might secretly have voodoo dolls under her bed or be afraid of the dark, leaving you thinking about the future you could’ve had if you weren’t just focused on shaking things up for no reason.

Your mother, (fans who understand chemistry) knows that you should have stuck it out with the first girl, you should have stuck it out with continuity.

This summer, the Pelicans listened to their mother.

Oct 23, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans general manager Dell Demps during a press conference prior to a preseason game against the Miami Heat at New Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Okay, now here’s the simplified version: the Pelicans chose to build continuity this offseason, in lieu of shifting everything around to gamble on a new roster.

Could I have just said that without the girlfriend analogy? Probably — but that’s less fun for an offseason article.

The “cost” of this strategy, (referred to in the title) is that people don’t really get it. For some reason, click-bait writers still grade teams based on how many pieces they moved and how many players they sign, instead of how they believe those pieces will mesh.

More from Big Easy Believer

To most NBA fans, an active front office is a good front office, and they don’t read too much into the details.

I agree to an extent, I mean look at the Hornets roster in 2012 before we drafted Davis versus today, there’s basically no overlap. You know why that’s a good sign? because in 2012 we were absolutely terrible.

Today we aren’t terrible, today we’re a playoff team.

When you have a playoff team, especially a young one, sometimes the best thing to do is just let them grow. Now if Kevin Durant decides he wants a roster spot next season, I will yell “screw continuity” from the mountain tops, but I’m not screaming that for Greg Monroe or Tobias Harris just yet.

Feb 7, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic small forward Tobias Harris (12) holds the ball as Oklahoma City Thunder small forward Kevin Durant (35) defends during the first half at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

What I want to do now is show you some examples of rosters who decided to run it back, were criticized, and surprised everyone that season when their chemistry translated into wins.

To do this I’m using a statistic called “Roster Continuity Percentage” which is the percentage of your roster which is “continued” from the previous season based on total minutes played (really complicated stuff right?).

First let’s go through history a little.

From 1954 to 1957 the Celtics averaged a 64% continuity rate and never did anything worth mentioning. Then they drafted someone named Bill Russell, decided to let their team grow together, and proceeded to win 11 NBA championships in 12 years.

Their continuity rate during those 12 years? 89%.

In fact their continuity rate stayed above 90% most of the decade, and the one season it dropped to 80% is the one season they lost to the 67′ Sixers. I’d say that’s just a coincidence, but the trend continues for 50 years…

Fast forward to the 80s, where Larry Bird and Magic Johnson ruled for a decade. Guess which two franchises had the highest average continuity?

Apr 6, 2009; Detroit, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans and NBA former player Magic Johnson (right) hugs NBA former player Larry Bird (left) during a press conference before the championship game of the Final Four in the 2009 NCAA mens basketball tournament against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-US PRESSWIRE

Yup, it’s the Celtics and Lakers with 85% and 87% respectively over the entire decade.

When did the Celtics and Lakers dynasties end? When the Pistons jumped from a 62% continuity rate to 95, 92, 95, and 97% continuity rates through the late 90s, winning two championships.

I can keep doing this.

Almost every champion in past or present NBA history has had a high continuity rate, and more often than not, the downfalls of those champions are marked by decline in that same area.

The Spurs, who are the modern version of Russell’s Celtics have basically maintained an 80+% continuity rate since the early 2000s, and even hit an insane 98% last season. 98%!

Look at the Hawks this year, they had good players, but did anyone think they were contenders? Most people (including me) projected 45-50 wins and a lower home-court seed in the east. Then the Hawks proceeded to win a ridiculous 60 games and become the first seed in their entire conference.

Why? CONSISTENCY!!! (I’m yelling from the mountaintops again).

The Hawks had an 88% continuity rate last season, which was good for second in the entire NBA falling lower than only the Spurs insane 98%.

Nov 25, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) and guard Jeff Teague (0) celebrate after defeating the Washington Wizards 106-102. at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s the point, continuity makes teams better then they are. The little things matter.

Knowing that Al Horford tends to pop instead of roll late in games matters if you’re Jeff Teague. Knowing exactly how fast Paul Millsap can give you an off-ball screen matters if you’re Kyle Korver trying to get open.

Knowing the stories about your teammates past, and understanding their background matters if you want to have strength and trust during times of adversity.

I’m starting to sound like a corny high school coach in a 90s basketball movie, but it’s true. History tells us that it’s true, and for some reason people still aren’t catching on.

Certain hypothetical writers I won’t name (Jimmy Smith) have criticized the Pelicans offseason saying that they didn’t improve, and should have shaken it up and made a splash.