LSU Controls Own Destiny in College Football Playoff Race
By Scotty Nola
The first college football playoff rankings won’t be released until November 3rd, but after this past weekend’s action it’s pretty easy to see where LSU sits as the season moves forward.
Back-to-back SEC West wins have moved LSU up to 8th place in the latest AP Top 25 Poll.
Only the top 4 teams make the playoffs; and if the selection committee were meeting today, it’s safe to say their decision would show LSU in roughly the same spot the AP poll does: Top 10 but not in the critical 1-4 slots.
The season is still early though, and the real news for LSU fans is this: for the first time LSU is now completely in control of their own destiny in the playoff hunt.
Sep 19, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Louisiana State Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) leaves the field after scoring three touchdowns against the Auburn Tigers at Tiger Stadium. LSU won 45-21. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
The reason for this is simple.
LSU has to move into the top 4 spots, and that means passing multiple teams. If you check the teams that are in front of them and look over schedules a bit, everything lines right up.
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Three days in November will decide the issue.
The first critical date is November 7th. LSU has a very winnable slate going into the Bama game, a win against Bama will provide them with a signature win against a ranked team, a critical factor for the Playoff Selection Committee.
November 21 and 27 are important for LSU because both dates feature matchups between teams currently ranked ahead of LSU. Current top ranked Ohio State plays #2 Michigan State on the 21st, while 3rd ranked Baylor and 5th ranked TCU face off on the 27th.
With four of the teams currently ranked ahead of LSU playing each other, that essentially bumps LSU up two extra spots — as long as they continue to handle their own business.
Oct 4, 2014; Auburn, AL, USA; LSU Tigers running back Kenny Hilliard (27) carries agains the Auburn Tigers during the second half at Jordan Hare Stadium. Auburn beat LSU 41-7. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
LSU will need to win their winnable October slate and then get past a murderer’s row schedule in November of Bama, Arkansas Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Ole Miss is currently tied with TCU for 3rd rank, a win over them clears another hurdle moving towards the precious top 4 spots.
Wins over Ole Miss and Alabama should also move them into the SEC Championship game.
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If Georgia continues to roll behind Nick Chubb, that sets up a game between two Heisman candidates and an opportunity for LSU to leapfrog another team in the polls.
The Selection Committee doesn’t base their decision off the polls, but they are part of the calculation. If LSU wins out they will be ranked no worse than 4th in the polls, with multiple signature games against top ranked teams along the way.
Winning out is tough.
And it’s not always a requirement. We have seen a 2 loss Tiger team play for (and win) a national championship. And an undefeated SEC winner should be an easy pick for the playoff, although that much isn’t news.
But SEC teams have been jobbed before, most recently when an undefeated Auburn squad was awarded a consolation bowl while lesser teams got the title shot nod.
Going into the season there were so many teams with cupcake schedules ranked ahead of LSU, the path to a title shot looked tough. Two SEC victories later, that is no longer the case.
Sep 19, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) breaks a tackle by Auburn Tigers defensive back Jonathan Jones (3) during the second quarter of a game at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
LSU is now in position to command a playoff slot by doing what they do best: win football games.
That’s a pretty big improvement for a team that started the season in the middle of the pack — with as many questions as answers……….