Saints Fantasy Football Week 5 Preview vs. Eagles
By Mike Delayo
One play can change the course of an entire fantasy season.
The first time I realized this I was only 11 years old. It was October 2007, and my dad was sitting pretty in his fantasy matchup, heading into the Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and the Broncos with an 18 point lead.
My dad’s opponent had one player left to try and close the gap: Packers receiver Greg Jennings.
As the fourth quarter winded down, it looked like the game was in the bag. Jennings only had 60 yards or so, 12 points short off what his owner needed.
My dad had won! The game was over.
Except it wasn’t.
Jay Cutler led the Broncos down the field, and Jason Elam drove home a game tying field goal to send the game to overtime.
What could possibly go wrong?
The Packers won the toss, and Brett Favre hit Jennings for an 82 yard touchdown.
Game over. For the Broncos, and my dad.
Later in the season, my dad ended up missing the playoffs by a game. Had he gotten the win that week, he would have been playoff bound.
The league was not for money or anything, but the fact that a single play altered the course of his entire season was still amazing to me (and frustrating to him). It is part of what pulled me into fantasy in the first place.
C.J. Spiller probably wasn’t played last week as much as Jennings was back in 2007, but the impact was the same. A fourteen point swing (in standard leagues) in a matter of seconds.
Some players can pull off these plays more than others, and that’s what makes them fun plays in fantasy. My dad will never let that play go, and for good reason. However, what keeps him and millions of other players going is the hope that the will be the ones with the Greg Jennings and C.J. Spiller of that week.
With that, let’s take a look at the Saints own explosive playmaker, and see if he can recreate last week’s magic against the Philadelphia Eagles.
HOT: C.J. Spiller
Oct 4, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back C.J. Spiller (28) carries the ball past Dallas Cowboys strong safety Barry Church (42) to score the game-winning 80-yard touchdown in overtime at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints won 26-20. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
The way the first four quarters against played out against the Cowboys, it appeared that an 80 yard touchdown pass was not even an option for the Saints in overtime.
Drew Brees and his injured shoulder performed admirably, but there was no way that the ball was going to travel more than twenty yards down the field. Alas, it did not have to, and he was still able to find Spiller on the sideline.
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Against the Eagles, Brees will probably be a bit healthier, but he will still be forced to, for the most part, stay within that twenty yard range. That is very good news for C.J. Spiller, who thrives in that part of the field.
The eighty yard touchdown seems like an outlier, but Spiller has the ability to consistently break out for those big plays whenever he gets his hands on the ball.
The Eagles have been unimpressive on defense thus far. They rank 15th and 25th and rushing and passing defense respectively, a big reason why they currently sit at 1-3. The entire Saints backfield could thrive, but Spiller has a chance to really make an impact.
Through four games they have given up 18 receptions to opposing running backs for a total of 153 yards. If given a few more snaps throughout the game, Spiller could easily take advantage of the space the Eagles usually give in the flats and tear off big gain after big gain.
Usually one big play is not enough to throw a player into your fantasy starting lineup. However, given Spiller’s full recovery from injury and Brees’ current shoulder issues, he could have make something special happen. Proceed with caution, because the floor remains low for Spiller, but he has the ability to swing both real and fantasy games that not many players do not.
NOT: Drew Brees
Oct 4, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) gestures from the field against the Dallas Cowboys during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Drew Brees threw for 360 yards and two touchdowns last week, a performance that looks like a return to form for the aging Saints quarterback. However, do not get too caught up in the excitement of the fantastic finish to the Cowboys game.
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Brees performance amounted to twenty two fantasy points, good for third best in the league. Without that eighty yard touchdown, that total would have fallen to fifteen, dropping him to eighteenth for the week.
He deserves praise for managing the heck out of that victory and coming up big in overtime, but he is not the Drew Brees that led New Orleans to the playoffs for so many years. His shoulder is nowhere near where it needs to be, and he simply cannot get the ball downfield to his receivers.
Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller were on the receiving end of 11 of Brees’ 33 completions. While these dump offs can sometimes lead to eighty yard touchdowns, they are for the most part just going to get a few yards here and there.
If the Saints are going to pull off some big plays, it will largely be through the work of the receivers. Willie Snead has done a great job finding room to run after the catch, but he is the only wide out that has stood out in doing so. Brandin Cooks, whom many hoped would blossom into an explosive playmaker this year, has yet to find similar success. The lack of playmaking ability down the field will do no good for Brees’ potential production.
Brees is playing as efficiently as ever despite his shoulder injury. For this reason he remains a safe pick heading into week five, but do not expect him to crack the top ten quarterback point totals again until he is back at full strength.
NOT: All Saints Wide Receivers
Oct 4, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Willie Snead (83) is tackled by Dallas Cowboys defensive back Corey White (23) during the fourth quarter of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints defeated the Cowboys 26-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
This season has been a struggle for the receiving core of the Saints so far.
Willie Snead leads the team in receiving yards with 240, a miniscule total compared to what most would expect from an offense run by one of the most prolific passers of all time.
Brandin Cooks, who is supposedly the number one option for the Saints, ranks second with 215 yards. He is only 15 yards ahead of Mark Ingram. Yes, that Mark Ingram!
Although Snead is not yet worth a start in fantasy, he could reach that status sooner rather than later. He has been the most consistent producer from the outside, and Brees is starting to hit him more and more.
All six targets against the Cowboys ended in a reception, a number that will only increase as Brees’ trust in the rookie wide out grows. He has a knack for finding open space after the catch, a knack that no other Saints have been able to utilize this year.
Lance Moore put together a few solid fantasy seasons with Brees throwing him the ball, and Snead could likely do the same. He is not yet starter material, but you may want to snag him while you can.
Brandin Cooks has still not shown any of the explosiveness fans were anticipating coming into the season. The game where he got the most action was with Luke McCown at quarterback, which is just plain bizarre.
Cooks’ ability to make big plays has been hurt by Brees’ current inability to throw the ball deep. Until that injury heals, don’t count on seeing any bombs being reeled in by Cooks. He has the quickness to make guys miss just like Spiller, but he will have to get the ball in his hands first.
Cooks still has a wealth of talent and could break out at any time, but until Brees is healthy it would be best to keep him, and the rest of the Saints receiving core, on the bench…..