LSU-Florida Preview: SEC Showdown in the Bayou
By Scotty Nola
With some games, a preview is a chance to find out what you are looking at in the coming Saturday’s action. With others, it’s hard to look forward without looking back a little bit.
An LSU-Florida Preview is one that carries it’s share of memories for LSU fans. There are bigger rivalries.
For older Tiger fans nothing compares with Ole Miss, Auburn, and ‘Bama get that purple and gold blood pumping hot every time.
Florida has been as big as any of them in recent decades. Years of frustration at the hands of Steve Spurrier led teams convinced the Tigers powers that be that a defensive minded coach was an absolute need, a search that led to Nick Saban and a national championship trophy.
Saban’s successor had his signature game against Florida on the way to another national title.
No Tiger fan will ever forget the repeated calls to go for it on 4th down, and Jacob Hester answering the bell over and over again in the most exciting regular season college game of the last 20 years.
Florida has had struggles since Urban Meyer left. That might have taken some of the luster off the game in recent years. That’s a natural letdown, considering that for a stretch the LSU Florida game was essentially a game for a spot in the National Championship game.
There will be no lack of excitement in Tiger Stadium tomorrow night.
LSU and Florida are both undefeated and ranked in the Top 10, and the winner of this game will be considered the SEC frontrunner and a frontrunner for one of the four slots in the National Championship Playoff.
Both teams enter the game with question marks, particularly in the passing game. LSU struggled to create any momentum in the passing game before last weeks effort against South Carolina.
Florida has juggled QB’s this year, replacing initial starter Treon Harris with Will Grier before losing Grier this week to a season long suspension for using banned substances.
More from Big Easy Believer
- New Orleans Saints: Three biggest questions heading into the offseason
- New Orleans Saints: Three positives to take from playoff loss
- New Orleans Pelicans: Betting guide vs. Sacramento Kings
- New Orleans Saints: Bold predictions for Wild Card Round vs. Vikings
- New Orleans Pelicans: Betting guide in Los Angeles Lakers rematch
This wasn’t Florida’s only loss to suspension this week. Defensive back Deiondre Porter was kicked off the team after being charged with a host of offenses related to his attacking his pregnant girlfriend. Making maters worse for the team Porter was convinced she was cheating on him with a teammate.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking Florida is reeling. Their backup QB began the season as a starter and they are deep enough in the secondary to overcome the loss of one player.
This game will be hard fought in all three phases: offense defense and special teams and winning will require a four quarter effort.
Here is a breakdown of tomorrow night’s SEC Showdown in the bayou.
When LSU has the Ball:
Oct 10, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Derrius Guice (5) breaks loose for a run against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the fourth quarter of a game at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated South Carolina 45-24. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Florida likes to call themselves “the real DBU” and they may have the nations best cornerback in Vernon Hargreaves III but they are currently ranked 45th in the nation in pass defense.
There will be opportunities for Brandon Harris and the LSU receiving corps to make plays on yet another defense geared up to stop Leonard Fournette.
Live Feed
Ole Hotty Toddy
On the ground it’s a different story. Florida is currently the 12th ranked rushing defense in the country, which sounds good, at least on paper. Looking a little deeper into the stats it’s clear Florida’s defense has built their run stopping reputation against a slate of pure cupcakes.
Tennessee is the only Florida opponent ranked higher than 50th in the national standings for rushing yards per game. The Vols were able to ring up 254 total yards and 5.0 yards per attempt on Florida.
Leonard Fournette, who tallied 140 yards and a 5.2 yards per carry average in last years Florida game is probably looking forward to seeing how well the “12th ranked rushing defense” has improved from last year.
In spite of Florida’s lofty rankings among the nations defensive units they can be thrown on, and less talented backs than Fournette have broken the century mark against them. Look for Fournette to try for another signature game in his Heisman campaign when LSU has the ball.
When Florida Has the Ball
Oct 11, 2014; Gainesville, FL, USA; LSU Tigers defensive tackle Davon Godchaux (57) and linebacker Kwon Alexander (4) tackle Florida Gators quarterback Jeff Driskel (6) during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. LSU Tigers defeated the Florida Gators 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Florida QB Will Grier was having a tremendous season before his suspension. His replacement is a talented athlete but a very different type of player.
Grier was a more pro style QB who checked down and threw from the pocket mixing short deep and intermediate throws. Treon Harris is an athlete with the arm to make deep passes but he is more likely to check down to himself and run the ball when his first option isn’t open.
This could play into LSU’s hands—if the Tigers pass rush shows up. With Treon Harris under center the Gators offense more closely resembles the Mississippi State and Auburn attacks than a traditional pro set.
LSU was able to contain those offenses for most of those two games and managed to rack up 8 sacks against them.
When the pass rush faltered against Mississippi State Dak Prescott was able to rally the Bulldogs for a couple of long scoring drives late in the game.
LSU has had time to develop it’s players since then and Treon Harris lacks Prescot’s experience so he should be a little easier to hold in check.
Florida will need to get something going in the air. They are currently ranked 101st in the nation in rushing yards per game in spite of having a few less than stellar defensive teams on their schedule.
With LSU’s ability to stop the run and their track record of handling athletic QB’s they should have an advantage when Florida has the ball.
The Special Teams Battle
Oct 11, 2014; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators place kicker Francisco Velez (95) kicks a field goal against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. LSU Tigers defeated the Florida Gators 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Special Teams is not an area where either team has acquitted themselves particularly well this season.
LSU has some serious issues on kick coverage, having given up points and good field position in that phase of the game. LSU also has a limited ability to kick field goals for distance.
After years of kicking excellence Tiger fans are finding out what it feels like to be average in this area, and it doesn’t feel particularly nice.
Florida has it’s own problems, as witnessed by their team’s 5-9 record on field goal attempts.
Neither team has been particularly effective in the return game, but this is always a danger when LSU plays a team with great speed.
For LSU fans the kicking game is more likely to contain mishaps than cause for celebration. This is the only phase of the game Florida should be looking forward with much anticipation.
The Bottom Line
Florida is a poor running team with a replacement QB who makes plays with his feet. LSU is a stout run defense that has played well against athletic QB’s.
Florida is an average pass defense playing a below average passing team. They are a highly ranked run defense that was gouged by the only good running team they have played.
Facing a surging LSU passing attack and an offense featuring Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice is not a match up that Gators fans should be anticipating happily.
This is a game that LSU can take control of early and run away with late. Under the lights at Tiger Stadium with a national audience that is exactly what I expect them to do.
Final Score Prediction: LSU 42, Florida 17
Next: Saints Smack the Dirty Birds: The Many Things We Liked and the One We Didn't