LSU vs. Western Kentucky Preview and Prediction
By Scotty Nola
You may be wondering right now, what’s a Hilltopper, anyways? It’s not as self explanatory as a Tiger. Everyone knows what a Tiger is, it’s a big cat that likes to eat meat and take naps in between roughing up smaller cats. Easy enough.
Hilltopper is a bit more complicated. Wikipedia has no idea. That’s OK, Wikipedia doesn’t know much about many subjects. Les Miles thinks he knows, and unfortunately this is information he is willing to share publicly.
No Les, it has nothing to do with the strategic military value of building forts on high ground. It just meant that the school was built on a hill, and people called the students that because they had to walk all the way up the hill to go to class.
That’s actually the real definition.
Kind of like calling LSU the sweaters because it’s hot in Baton Rouge and everyone sweats walking back and forth the first month of class.
They have a mascot, which isn’t called a Hilltopper and looks nothing like a hill.
That big red thing is called Big Red.
No word yet on his feeding habits or if he has a natural habitat beyond hilly type environments. There has been no mention of difficulty getting him to walk into his cage to drive to games, so presumably he will be somewhere on the sideline Saturday.
By the way: when we say hill we aren’t talking levees, apparently some of these things are really tall, like over 100 feet tall which technically would be a small mountain, at least to most LSU fans.
Of course there’s more going on in this game than an unfamiliar nickname or odd mascot. Some football will be played.
Here’s a look at how these two teams stack up production to production.
When LSU has the Football and Hilltoppers are on Defense
Oct 17, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) carries the ball past Florida Gators defensive back Keanu Neal (42) during the second half at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Florida 35-28. Mandatory Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
We all know what LSU wants to do when they have the ball: hand off to current Heisman leader Leonard Fournette. They also will want to continue developing Brandon Harris and the passing attack going into the toughest stretch on the schedule.
LSU has the nations 6th ranked Rushing Offense, averaging 325 yards a game. Western Kentucky has the nations 78th ranked rushing defense, giving up nearly 173 yards per game. Advantage: LSU
LSU started very slow this year on passing offense, and are currently ranked 121st in the nation, averaging 135 yards per game in the air. They have been improving lately, and Brandon Harris has broken 20 yards in each of his last two games.
Western Kentucky is currently ranked 107th in the nation in pass defense, giving up over 265 yards per game in the air. LSU will have every opportunity to continue to improve in this area against the Hilltoppers. Advantage: LSU
When Western Kentucky Has the Ball and LSU is on Defense
Oct 17, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers safety John Battle (26) and defensive back Dwayne Thomas (13) break up a pass to Florida Gators wide receiver Antonio Callaway (81) during the fourth quarter of a game at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Florida 35-28.Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Western Kentucky is nto a team to sleep on in the passing game. Right now ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. has Hilltopper starting QB Brandon Doughty and TE Tyler Higbee both rated in the Top 10 prospects at their position.
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Doughty in particular has been really rising on draft boards and will be a name to follow as the NFL draft approaches.
This is coming when national analysts are pointing out that LSU has had some surprising (for them) breakdowns in coverage. The Tigers have certainly given up too many big plays to open receivers. Getting Jalen Mills, the leader of the Tigers secondary back for this game will help a lot.
Still, Western Kentucky is the third ranked passing offense in the country, racking up 407 yards per game in the air. LSU is an uncustomary 45th in the country on passing defense, giving up 205 yards per game.
Doughty will have an uphill climb to hang a 400 yard game on LSU, but with Fournette likely running well the Hilltopers are going to have to throw just to keep up, and even Jalen Mills return might not be enough to shut them down entirely. Advantage: Western Kentucky
LSU is a top 10 rushing defense, Western Kentucky is the 110th ranked rushing offense. With the way LSU’s front 7 is playing right now, well, if you’re a Hilltopper fan you are praying for Brandon Doughty to have a great game. Advantage: LSU
Special Teams vs. Special Teams
Oct 17, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers place kicker Trent Domingue (14) carries the ball for a touchdown in front of Florida Gators defensive back Vernon Hargreaves III (1) and linebacker Jarrad Davis (40) on a fake field goal attempt in the second half at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Florida 35-28. Mandatory Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
Careful readers will take note that the picture accompanying the section on special teams shows LSU Place Kicker Trent Domingue running into the end zone to score a TD against Florida on a trick play.
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This photo was selected for two reasons. For one thing, it was a really cool play. For another, it is literally the only thing that has gone right for LSU’s special teams all year.
LSU is currently dead last in the nation in punt returns, rated 127th out of 127 teams and giving up an average of more than 10 yards per punt return more than their next worst competitor, 126th ranked Bowling Green.
That number would actually be even more abysmal if they did not stop counting yards at the goal line, as several opponents could have continued to run unabated until they became tired or simply grew bored from lack of anyone chasing them.
Kickoff coverage isn’t much better, in that category the Tigers rank 111 out of 127 teams.
The Tigers are marginally better when opposing teams kick the ball to them, ranking 99th in the country in that category. Top 100, hey. They are a startlingly better 39th in the country in returning punts that have been kicked to them.
That one brief glimmer of mediocrity aside, it is clear that the Tigers have by far and away the worst special teams unit in the country, in spite of recruiting outstanding athletes at all positions, particularly at the skill positions where backups so often become special teams difference makers.
The best recommendation I can offer LSU fans during any special teams play is to close your eyes, pray it’s over quickly, then go about your business as if nothing untoward has happened. Advantage: Western Kentucky
Oct 15, 2015; Denton, TX, USA; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers wide receiver Nacarius Fant (1) runs after the catch as he holds off North Texas Mean Green defensive back Zac Whitfield (24) during the second half of game at Apogee Stadium. Western Kentucky won 55-28. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Overall, LSU has the most advantages by far. Their big physical offensive line should absolutely smother the Hilltoppers defensive front giving Fournette room to run and buying Brandon Harris plenty of time to throw the ball.
LSU is so talented on defense that even a top flight passing attack like the one led by WKU star QB Brandon Doughty will not be enough.
Western Kentucky and LSU will play a competitive game but the Tigers will be dominant enough to continue to cover special teams miscues should any show up. Overall this is a game where Western Kentucky will make some passing plays and score some points, but the Tigers come out on top in the end.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: LSU 49 Western Kentucky 31
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