Early Look at the 2016 College Football Playoff Race: Where Does LSU Stand?
By Scotty Nola
This week the selection committee for the College Football Playoff will release their first ranking of the season. Of course the ranking itself doesn’t mean much. There is a lot of football left to be played before the invites go out.
That isn’t to say we are lacking a pretty clear picture of who is in at this point. Figuring out who is out will take a few weeks, but the 5 brackets are pretty well established.
To break this down the best way is to look at each of the five brackets one by one, because there are some variables in each.
OK, you may be thinking that bit about “five brackets” was a typo, since this is clearly a four team playoff.
Or you could be asking yourself why we are calling them brackets instead of slots when there are only four teams to begin with, not four (or five) separate brackets.
They are still brackets because each of them has multiple teams, play in games, and trap games that can knock a team out even if they win their play in game.
The reason there are five is that in addition to the four main brackets there is a small but viable pool of contenders waiting for a seat at the table. If a “perfect storm” type scenario knocks an entire bracket out one of these lurker teams can sneak in.
Right now the five brackets are the Big Ten bracket, the Big 12 bracket, the ACC bracket, the SEC bracket, and the best of the rest, or the lurkers bracket.
That last group is waiting for someone in the top four to blink; so that they can take their place in the College Football Playoff and eventually end up in Glendale, Arizona to play for the National Championship.
This can happen quickly.
Before last Saturday’s games, the ACC bracket was originally the PAC 12 bracket.
When Utah lost to a three loss USC team and Clemson beat Miami so hard they fired their coach, the ACC took over the PAC 12 seat at the table.
As mentioned each bracket has multiple teams, a play in game, and a trap game waiting before the end of the season. Here is how they all lay out.
And for you LSU fans, we’ll see where they stand at this very moment as well……
Team to beat: Ohio State. Right now the Buckeyes mission is simple–win it and you’re in it. The defending champs are undefeated and rest on top of the AP poll. If they don’t lose they are prety much a lock for the playoff.
Play in game: Ohio State vs Michigan State Nov. 21 is the game for all the marbles for both teams. Michigan State is also undefeated and ranked in the Top 10, a win over Ohio State knocks the Buckeyes out and puts the Spartans in the driver seat.
Trap Game: Big Ten Championship Game. There are three undefeateds in the Big Ten right now, and lightly regarded Iowa is one of them. They should face the winner of the Ohio St. Michigan St. game and have a chance to take them out and muddy the playoff waters considerably.
The Big 12 Bracket
Oct 24, 2015; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Seth Russell (17) passes the ball during the first half against the Iowa State Cyclones at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Team to beat: Good question. Baylor looked a little better than TCU before they lost their starting QB for the season. Now it’s anyone’s guess. Call it Baylor TCU push.
Play in game: Should be Baylor vs. TCU on November 27. If both teams are still undefeated when they face off that one is for all the marbles.
Trap Game: To get to their head to head undefeated both Baylor and TCU have to get through Oklahoma and Oklahoma State first. No guarantees there. To make it worse if Baylor wins they still have to face a surging Texas team after they play TCU.
The ACC Bracket
Oct 17, 2015; Clemson, SC, USA; Clemson Tigers wide receiver Artavis Scott (3) makes a catch while being defended by Boston College Eagles defensive back Kamrin Moore (5) during the second half at Clemson Memorial Stadium. Tigers won 34-17. Mandatory Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports
Team to beat: Clemson. The undefeated Tigers are in the drivers seat after vaulting into the Top 5 in the polls after their shellacking of Miami.
Play in Game: Clemson vs Florida St. November 7.
Trap Game: Everything on Clemson’s schedule. They look good now but they lack signature wins and a bad loss probably knocks them out of consideration entirely.
The SEC Bracket
Oct 24, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) runs against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers during the fourth quarter of a game at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Western Kentucky 48-21. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Team to beat: LSU. The Tigers are undefeated, in the Top 5 in the polls and feature the nation’s best player in Leonard Fournette.
Play in game: LSU vs Alabama November 7. Right now LSU is in and one loss Alabama is close. They will switch positions if Bama beats the Tigers at home.
Trap Game: The SEC Championship Game. The East winner will likely be Florida, and this is a particular danger for LSU since the Tigers have already beaten Florida once this year and it’s very hard to win a rematch against a talented team.
If one of the four brackets completely implodes, still a very real possibility, then a team currently on the sideline can move in to take that place.
A team like LSU or Ohio State could lose their play-in game, win out and with the right streak of luck — back into the playoffs.
An underdog can win a trap game and win out, stealing one of the spots from the current main contenders. Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma all fall into that category.
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The PAC 12 still has two one loss teams, Stanford and Utah. If either of them win out they will be in position to take advantage of another team’s sorrow.
Notre Dame is still hanging on the edge of the playoff picture as well. They don’t really have a signature win, but their only loss was a close one to Clemson. The wins they do have against Texas and USC are starting to look a little better as the season progresses.
Notre Dame does have one thing on their side: they have three ranked teams left on their schedule, including a season finale against 8th ranked Stanford.
Notre Dame also has the Notre Dame factor. The playoff committee won’t hesitate to give them an open slot if someone falters, so if Notre Dame wins out, they could make it in.
Now we know who can make the playoffs, and how they can make it happen.
Ohio State, TCU, Clemson, and LSU look to be in the driver seat right now, but everything can change in a heartbeat in college football, and this season has a few twists and turns left in it………
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