Everything Wrong With “Saints’ Brees To Jets” Trade Talk

Yesterday, ESPN writer Greg Garber released an article proposing five potential trades that “they’d like to see” happen before the trade deadline on November 3 at 3 p.m. CST. One of those trades was the New Orleans Saints sending future Hall Of Famer Drew Brees to the New York Jets for a 3rd round draft pick.

Other trades mentioned were J.J. Watt to the Packers, Jay Cutler to the Redskins and Calvin Johnson to the Patriots.

Now while yes — in the NFL all things are possible — the idea of the Saints trading away the best player in team history is hard to imagine.

Here at the Big Easy Believer, we at times can be ‘biased’.

We are a New Orleans-based group covering local sports and are composed mostly of fans of the teams we cover.

That being said, it doesn’t take a non-fan, analyst or NFL GM to see that there is little to no merit in this proposal.

Let’s take a look at Mr. Garber’s own words and break down his points.

"“New Orleans won a Super Bowl at the end of the 2009 season and put together double-digit regular-season wins four times in five seasons. But the modern-day reality is three losing seasons in the past four, including a 3-4 mark this season.”"

Context is everything here. What jumps out to me first in this statement Mr. Garber makes is that he is taking one period of time and breaking it down into two distinct statistics. The Saints went “double-digit wins four times in fives seasons” from 2009-2013.

The problem arises is that he words the article to sound like the Saints had five strong seasons followed by four bad ones. In actuality, the “modern-reality of three losing seasons in the past four” is from 2012-2015 (now). Obviously this NFL season is not over, yet Mr. Garber is already penciling it down as a losing season.

The real “modern-reality” is that the Saints have double-digit wins in four of the last six seasons, and the 2015 season is still an unknown. We’ll need a few more months to find out how this team finishes.

"“…already hopelessly far behind the 6-0 Carolina Panthers and 6-1 Atlanta Falcons in the smoking NFC South.”"

No one will try to argue that the Saints are the best team in the NFC South. The best team is the one on top until another team unseats them. The sixth seed is currently held by the Minnesota Vikings at 4-2, but they still have their toughest games ahead of them, including Green Bay twice.

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Before the season began I did beg this team to finish 7-9. This prediction was based on a combination of youth at defense as well as a difficult early stretch of games. However, the Saints next three games are against the Giants, Titans and Redskins and then they go into their bye week. It is possible they can head into the bye 5-5 or even 6-4 (yes, 3-7 and 4-6 are also possibilities).

While yes this is conjecture, so is saying the Saints are “hopelessly behind” the division leaders. The remaining Saints opponents have an overwhelming disparity in losses to wins in a form that favors the Saints. They aren’t out of the hunt just yet.

"“The Saints have systematically dismantled their core underlined by the dealing of tight end Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks and the release of linebacker Junior Galette.”"

Here I thought bringing in one of the best centers in the NFL was literally strengthening your core. Yes, Jimmy Graham was super star player for the Saints. Keep in mind though the Saints directly received three starting players from that trade. Not only did they receive Max Unger, but they were able to draft Stephone Anthony as well as pay for the contract of Brandon Browner with the money they saved.

As for Graham’s production, this season with the Seahawks Graham has 31 receptions for 375 yards and 2 TDs. Ben Watson, filling in for the departed Graham here in New Orleans, has put up 29 receptions for 325 yards and 2 TDs. Similar numbers. Obviously our offensive system would allow for Graham’s stats to be more inflated, but the point is the Saints got a good deal.

Oct 18, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham (88) reacts after making a reception for a first down against the Carolina Panthers during the second quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

"“Thinking ahead, the Saints picked quarterback Garrett Grayson in the third round this year, the highest they’ve drafted a quarterback in the regular draft since Archie Manning."

Apparently Mr. Garber is reading a lot into the fact that Jeff Ireland, Sean Payton, Mickey Loomis and others were the first Saints front office to draft a QB this high in over four decades. Yes, you read that correctly, four decades. Archie Manning was selected 2nd overall in the 1971 draft.

Coach Payton was seven years old at the time, Ireland would still need five years to pass until his birthday, as he had yet to be born, and Mickey Loomis was eight. Keep in mind though, all of this is related (somehow). Hopefully Mr. Garber elaborates on this soon.

Former Saints QB and legend Archie Manning, in 1978 (Photo courtesy of Kyle T. Mosley of the Saints Fans News and Radio Network)

This is in no way knocking Grayson, but I hardly see how drafting him in the third round means they trade Brees after eight games in Grayson’s rookie season. The young QB has yet to see a NFL snap, let alone be prepared to take the reigns and fill the shoes of a Saints legend.

"“The base salary is a staggering $19.75 million next year and the salary cap hit is $30 million — the highest in the league. The Jets are among those NFL teams closest to the cap ceiling, but they’ll find a way to bring Brees”"

If the trade were to happen today, the Jets would instantly be over the cap and would be forced to either immediately restructure Drew’s contract (and get him to agree to one, at that) or release players. Darrelle Revis alone accounts for 16 million guaranteed this season, and next season the veteran corner will command 17 million guaranteed.

They could cut Brandon Marshall next year and save 9.5 million, but this season he is locked in for that same amount in dead money. Nick Mangold, a staple of the Jets line, would be the next candidate who could save them the most money at 7.4 million if he were cut today. Obviously cutting a Pro-Bowl/All-Pro center isn’t the best way to start the acquisition of a high profile QB.

Next: Saints Film Study: Defensive Resurgence Leads To 'W'

Predicting trades and attempting to guess how one team will try to arm themselves up for a deep playoff run, or in some cases a deep draft class, can be a lot of fun. When doing so it is important to keep everything in perspective. I don’t think this trade idea makes much sense, but if the team were thinking of trading Brees I think there are other suitors that are both a better fit and would ante’ up more payment.

The Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers are the first two teams that come to mind. Both have more cap room than the Saints or Jets, and one team has no permanent starter. The other team’s starter has a contract that could be cut after next season without costing the team much money, and that starter was the face of a former coach who has already departed.

That said, I don’t see those two scenarios being any more likely than Mr. Garber’s, but at least they make a bit more sense. I hope you enjoyed the article, and as always I welcome any comments, critiques or all around banter. God bless, and Who Dat!