Ping Pong, Pelicans and the Game of Chance

13.7%. That was the chance of winning the top spot four years ago in the 2012 NBA Draft, the last time that New Orleans’ NBA franchise participated in a draft lottery after finishing among the NBA’s worst teams.

The Hornets moved up from the fourth spot to earn the top pick that night, which they then used one month later to select consensus All-American center and power forward Anthony Davis, now the team’s “franchise” player and a Top 5 NBA elite-caliber talent.

The University of Kentucky star has since gone on to earn three consecutive All-Star selections and led the Pelicans to a playoff berth in ‘15.

When the 2016 NBA lottery is held next Tuesday Night (May 17^th), New Orleans will be hoping once again for a similar result, though its chances of earning the No. 1 pick are roughly doubly more difficult this time than it was on that fateful night back in 2012.

The Pelicans – who finished 30-52 – will enter the lottery in the sixth position, which carries with it a 6.3 percent chance of winning the top choice. There is also a 7.1 percent chance of finishing second, along with an 8.1 percent chance of ending up third.

That means that according to the lottery probabilities, New Orleans has a 21.5 percent of garnering a top-three selection.

Based on the math, the most likely draft pick for the Pelicans to land this time is sixth (43.9 percent), though that is still less than a 50-50 chance at best.

One thing to remember: the NBA Draft Lottery process only determines which teams get picks 1-3; so after that, teams select based on reverse order of their records.

That means that New Orleans cannot pick fourth or fifth, but the Pelicans could potentially drop up to three spots, if they are “jumped” by teams behind them in the lottery order.

There is a 30.5 percent chance of New Orleans picking seventh, followed by a 4.0 percent chance of eighth, followed by the slim to none 0.1 odds of slipping all the way to the ninth overall spot.

"PELICANS LOTTERY ODDS OF PICKING:# 1: 6.3 percent# 2: 7.1 percent# 3: 8.1 percent# 6: 43.9 percent# 7: 30.5 percent# 8: 4.0 percent# 9: 0.1 percentDates to remember: 63 prospects are currently attending the NBA draft combine in Chicago, which ends this Sunday, May 15th. The NBA Draft Lottery is May 17th, and the 2016 NBA Draft is slated for June 23rd."

As it is, the entire NBA Draft process is either “boom or bust”.

The Draft Lottery is a game of chance; and for a Pelicans team in desperate need of a sure thing (a bona fide star that can come into the organization and breathe some life into the team and Smoothie King Center), privately behind the scenes there a lot crossed fingers out on Airline Drive.

With the both the NBA Draft Lottery and 2016 NBA Draft looming, there are several questions surrounding the New Orleans Pelicans.

The most important question that garners banter is where and who will the Pelicans pick. The player’s position or the type of player is always the additional question of importance.

The simple answer is the Pelicans need a serious talent infusion in the worst way. To say the Pelicans need to “hit” on exceptional players in the 2016 Draft next month on the 23rd of June, is an understatement.

Feb 20, 2016; Knoxville, TN, USA; LSU Tigers forward Ben Simmons (25) dribbles the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers at Thompson-Boling Arena. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Besides getting a Top 10 pick, the Pelicans also have 2 second round picks . Second round picks are depth players, because the “cream of the crop” players are usually drafted in the first round. Famous second round picks of past NBA Drafts such as Gilbert Arenas, Paul Milsap, Draymond Green, Marc Gasol, Manu Ginaboli, etc. that went on to become All Stars, usually don’t fall in your lap in the 2nd round.

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The Pelicans need to draft play makers and players that will inject some life into the organization. The Pelicans have had losing seasons for 4 out the past 5 years.

As far as draft positioning is concerned, the bounce of the ping-pong ball can make all the difference in the world. The Pelicans need a game changer or two in this year’s draft, and a majority of the fan base wants that player to be a wing player.

A few things that the Pelicans brass should include in their assessments for draftable players and free agents are:

Does this player (or players) embody the desire, leadership, heart and competitive nature that’s needed to turn things around?

Is the player(s) a scheme fit?

And perhaps most important of all: how will he /they mesh together with Anthony Davis?

March 24, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Brandon Ingram (14) dunks to score a basket against Oregon Ducks during the second half of the semifinal game in the West regional of the NCAA Tournament at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

The opportunities are pretty much endless for the Pelicans, if they can sneak in to the Top 3 of the draft. If the Pelicans stay within the top 6 in the draft, here are 6 top players they can choose from and a few of their 2016 accolades. (Ingram, Murray, and Simmons are thought to be top 3 picks)

Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke – 2nd Team All ACC, ACC Rookie of the Year. Ingram averaged 17.3 points, 6.8 Rebounds , and 2 assists per game.

Jamal Murray, SG, Kentucky – First Team All SEC, SEC All Freshman Team, 3rd Team All- American. Murray averaged 20 points per game, 5.2 rebs per game, 2.2 assist per game.

Ben Simmons, SF, LSU – First Team All SEC, National Freshman of the Year, 1st Team All-American. Simmons averaged 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game.

Kris Dunn, PG, Providence – First Team All Big East, Big East Player of the Year, 2nd Team All-American. Dunn averaged 16.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game.

Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma – Wooden Award Winner, Naismith College Player of the Year, 1st Team All American. Hield averaged 25 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2 assists per game.

Denzel Valentine, SG, Michigan State – AP Player of the Year, Big Ten Player of the Year, First Team All American. Valentine averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game.

Mar 18, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Denzel Valentine (45) motions while guarded by Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders forward Perrin Buford (2) during the first half of the first round in the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Clearly, the opportunity is there for the Pelicans to improve their team with 3 picks within the Top 40 players overall.

Now they can only hope for some luck to bounce their way once again, in the form of a Ping-Pong ball………..

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