The New Orleans Saints take on one of the worst teams in the NFL this season in the Atlanta Falcons looking to dismantle their division foe.
The New Orleans Saints are coming off of a bye week and could not have asked for a seemingly easier game on paper than the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have been nothing short of a disappointment the last two seasons and enter this season with a 1-7 record.
Meanwhile, the Saints lost their Hall of Fame starting quarterback for five weeks, starting in Week 2, and enter this game with the exact opposite of a 1-7 record, a 7-1 record.
It really is a strange case with the Falcons as they have playmakers and they have a quarterback who is one of the 10-most talented quarterbacks in the league. A shoddy defense and terrible coaching are what has held the Falcons back.
This looks to be an easy win for the Saints. The Saints are an offensive juggernaut with Drew Brees back under center and should be able to score a lot of points against this defense. Plus, with the defense now looking much better, there is a good chance that the Falcons stay in single digits.
With all that being said, I would still be very careful betting the Saints and I actually would not bet them against the spread at all. According to the Action Network, the Saints are currently 13-point favorites against the Falcons, which is just too much to give.
First of all, this is a division game, so the Falcons are going to really get up for this one. Granted, this might not change the final result, but it might turn what would have been a 21-point game into a 10-point game.
The main reason why I would be extremely careful with the Saints is there garbage time defense, as absurd as it sounds. There is no stat to quantify this but it feels like the Saints lead the league in garbage time points allowed this season.
They allowed Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to pad the box score, the Buccaneers to get back in close and the Bears to get back within nine. The Saints easily won all of these games but the late-game points made it look closer than it was.
Things like this are what led to backdoor covers to ruin every parlay in America. The Saints could be easily winning this game by three touchdown midway through the fourth and still allow the Falcons to score two touchdowns.
This is not something that should be concerning, at all. The fact that the team is in so many garbage time situations is a testament to the Saints if anything.
It does mean a lot for gambling, though, and I definitely would not be comfortable giving the New Orleans Saints 13 points.