The New Orleans Pelicans Will be Instant Contenders in 2016

By Johnny Louisiana | Jan 25, 2015

The world of digital media is becoming increasingly on-demand. Services like Netflix and Hulu have become more dominant than cable television within the entertainment industry, and every day more people abandon traditional scheduled programming for more personalized media options.

This digital revolution has put corporations at a disadvantage when it comes to commercial advertising. Live television events have historically produced the most revenue. With an increase in demand-based television streaming, the money which can be spent on live event advertising has risen exponentially.

This is the whole reason the NBA signed a 930 million dollar television deal in 2007, and has locked up a 24 billion dollar deal in 2014.

Basketball, and professional sports in general, differ from movies and TV because the average consumer prefers to watch them live. This gives the NBA significant leverage when it comes to advertisement deals. In an increasingly on-demand world, sports will always be more electrifying to watch live, and more profitable as well.

This insane new TV deal will directly affect the NBA salary cap as well. The current NBA salary cap is 63.065 million dollars, and accounting for the new TV deal most experts estimate the cap will rise to around 88 million dollars during the summer of 2016.

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This produces a 33.2% increase across the board for the cap, the max salary, the rookie deal, and all other forms of an NBA contract.

Take a look at any NBA team’s books and you will notice that almost every team is planning for this historic rise. Every team is trying to clear their books by 2016 in the hopes that they will be the team to take advantage, and create an instant contender.

No team is better position to do this than the New Orleans Pelicans.

As the team stands today, the Pelicans have little to no options in terms of roster flexibility. They have$ 68,811,245 committed for the 2014-2015 season, no first round picks, and Eric Gordon‘s corpse to deal with.

Jan 18, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New Orleans Pelicans guard Eric Gordon (10) reacts after a missed shot against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. The Pelicans beat the Raptors 95-93. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Gordon has a player option on his contract and while he could opt out this off-season, there is practicality no chance he turns down $15,514,031 given the terrible season he’s having.

The Pelicans have only 56,289,291 dollars committed next season, but they will most likely resign Omer Asik for 8-12 million and then be in virtually the same position they are now.

I can also promise that the minute this season ends the Pelicans front office will chase Anthony Davis down and give him a designated max contract in order to lock him up as soon as possible.

Here is where it gets fun. The Pelicans have only 3 players committed through 2016 right now: Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, and Quincy Pondexter. These three combine to make only $26,594,996, which gives us… wait for it… 61,405,004 dollars in cap space. In addition, Quincy makes just under 4 million and both Jrue and Tyreke will be expiring.

We should probably resign Anthony Davis though. Here is where a lot of experts might disagree with me: There is an idea that Anthony Davis might choose to enter free agency in 2016 instead.

He’s a restricted free agent, meaning the Pelicans will keep him regardless, but the idea is that Davis will want to hold off securing a max deal in 2015 so he can sign a more lucrative one in 2016 under this fancy new cap I’ve been talking about.

Here’s why people who think this are wrong.

Aug 1, 2014; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Team USA guard Paul George is carted off the floor on a gurney after suffering a lower leg injury during the USA Basketball Showcase at Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

This summer while playing for team USA, Paul George suffered a compound fracture of the tibia and fibula in his right leg. Paul George will likely be fine, but I guarantee his agent was glad he signed a max deal with the Pacers that summer instead of gambling on the market.

Imagine if George had been less fortunate: what if the injury had been career ending? If he hadn’t taken the money he would be out this entire season and then left with no guaranteed money and a tragically early retirement.

Derrick Rose also took max money immediately, and then proceeded to injure himself in the following playoffs and has only recently returned to the NBA. Both George and Rose were offered “Designated Player” max contracts.

This means their teams took advantage of a rule which allows the organization to name one player on a rookie deal their “designated player” and then offer that player a 5 year max instead of the traditional 4 year deal.

The Designated player max also allows that player to receive 30% of the teams cap instead of the normal 25%. No player in HISTORY has ever turned down a designated 5 year max deal, and with the so many superstars becoming tragically injured, Anthony Davis will take the money as soon as he can and secure his future.

This summer’s cap is projected to be 66.5 million dollars. If we give Davis that designated 5 year max he will receive a minimum of about 19.9 million dollars in 2016.

We also need to resign Asik, Marcin Gortat received 12 million a year and he’s slightly better, but Anderson Varejao also received 9.6 million and he’s slightly worse. If we split the difference, I expect Asik to receive about 10.8 million dollars a year in his extension this summer.

Now let us see what we have. Jrue, Tyreke, and Quincy account for 26,594,996 dollars, Davis and Asik account for about 30.1 million dollars. This means the team will have a core of Jrue-Tyreke-Pondexter-Davis-Asik all committed and only making a combined 56,694,966 dollars with… wait for it again… 31.3 million dollars to spend in free agency.

The dream scenario is that the Pelicans use this money to target Kevin Durant. Durant will be an unrestricted free agent in 2016 and by then him and Davis will more than likely be the #1 and #2 best players in the league.

Jan 18, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) looks on against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Orlando Magic 127-99. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Just like with Wade and LeBron in 2010, it’s not impossible that these two decide they want to team up and totally obliterate the league for the better part of a decade. If we could lure Durant we would still have around 7 million dollars to spend on role players, and an MLE to use after that.

The realistic scenario is Nicolas Batum, he will also be a FA in 2016 and his all-around skill set would complement Davis perfectly. We could offer him a sizable deal and still have over 10 million dollars to spend on role players and the rest of our bench.

We could also target Demar Derozan, Danillo Gallinari, or Jeff Green and just like with Batum, be able to still spend 15-10 million on our bench and then use our MLE after we tie up the majority of our cap. The 2016 free agent class is littered with players who could be that missing perimeter piece that the Pelicans need to become true contenders.

Sports are unique, the excitement and rush that comes from watching it live will continue to produce these lucrative jumps in player income. The Pelicans were blessed with Anthony Davis and in two years he could be one of the greatest players the league has ever seen, veterans and stars alike will be lining up to join him and win a title.

If the Pelicans are smart, they will come out of 2016 with a revamped roster, and hopefully bring an NBA title to New Orleans…..

Next: The Impact of Jrue Holiday's Injury

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