Projecting the Pelicans Roles and Rotations

240 minutes.

For every game this season, and every game in history, the combined minutes of the Pelican’s roster will add up to at least 240 minutes. Now as you’ve probably noticed, these minutes need to be divided between five different positions.

Which is too bad, because I wouldn’t mind giving 150-200 of them to Anthony Davis alone.

What we’re going to do now is predict just how Alvin Gentry will divide up those 240 minutes, which players will receive them, and which roles they will play in the process.

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The most important factor in these projections, is understanding the Head Coach.

If the Pelicans had hired Tom Thibodeau instead of Gentry, then I would probably have Davis closer to 42 minutes then a comfortable 34. Meanwhile, if they had somehow convinced Greg Popovich to open up shop in New Orleans, I doubt we would see more than one or two players crack 30.

In Gentry’s most successful season as a Head Coach, he was very conservative with his teams minutes usage.

In his 09′-10′ season leading the Phoenix Suns, the team’s leader in minutes per game was Amar’e Stoudemire, who averaged only 34.6 per game (46th in the league). Last season as an Associate Head Coach for the Golden State Warriors, Steph Curry led the team in minutes averaging just 32.7 a game (41st in the league).

In the Warriors 2013-2014 season, under Head Coach Mark Jackson, Steph Curry played 36.5 minutes per game (9th in the league). Similarly, last season, Anthony Davis played 36.1 minutes under Monty Williams (5th in the league).

Both were top 10 in the entire NBA in minutes, and both played for injury plagued teams. This last season under Kerr and Gentry, Curry didn’t even crack the top 40, and his team was healthy and rested up until they won the title.

So here’s my prediction: Alvin Gentry, much like Steve Kerr, will play this team at a faster pace, and will manage minutes a lot more conservatively. This isn’t a radical idea, but understanding the impact of this philosophy is key to projecting the rotation.

I also believe this strategy will prevent a significant amount of injuries for the Pelicans. Thibodeau’s teams have routinely broken down by the playoffs, and missed time due to his liberal minutes allocation.

In these last few seasons the Spurs have shown us that rest is the key to health and longevity, and Alvin Gentry understood this principle long before the rest of the league began to catch on.

To project the minutes of each player, I’m going to refer specifically to Gentry’s 09′-10′ season with the Suns (his most successful as a Head Coach) and last season’s Warriors (his most successful as an associate).

I’m going to compare players on this roster to players on those teams, use that information to predict what role they will play, and find out how many minutes they will average.

The Star

As we know, Stoudemire played only 34 minutes in 2010, and Curry played only 32 last season. This suggests that though Anthony Davis’ stats might improve, he will likely take a slight dip in minutes per game.

Amar’e was his teams most athletic scoring big, and Curry was his team’s star player. Anthony Davis is both his team’s most athletic scoring big, and his team’s star player.

Like Amar’e, he will probably be used as a pick and roll threat, and face-up shooter more than a traditional back to the basket big, and like Curry, he will lead the team in usage (he was 2nd to Tyreke last season) and be relied on in crunch time. Minutes per game prediction: 34

The Backcourt

Gentry played Steve Nash only 32.8 minutes a game in 2010 as the teams best guard, and Jason Richardson 31.5 minutes as his backcourt partner/spot up shooter.

Gentry liked to have two backup guards for each position, and play them each for about 18 minutes a game. Goran Dragic averaged 18.0 that season, and Leandro Barbosa averaged 17.9 in those roles. Gentry played only those four guards regularly that season.

Last season with the Warriors, the roles stayed the same. Curry and Klay Thompson both averaged around 30 minutes a game, with Shaun Livingston averaging 18.8 as the first backup guard, and Leandro Barbosa averaging 14.9 as the second.

This suggests Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon will both start, since Gentry likes to begin games with a traditional point guard, and spot-up specialist next to him. Sticking with the status-quo, they should both average about 30.

Then we have those two 18 minute slots Gentry likes to leave for two backup guards. Norris Cole (should he resign, which is likely) and Tyreke Evans will likely each get one of those slots.

The Wings

This is the part where we don’t compare as perfectly to those past teams. Both the 2010 Suns and the 2015 Warriors had a solid 30 minute per game small forward they started (Harrison Barnes, Grant Hill) and a backup, more versatile small forward who could play both wing positions (Andre Igoudala, Jared Dudley). We have the 2nd guy in Quincy Pondexter, but we’re missing the first one.

Jared Dudley played 24.3 minutes in 2010, and Andre played 26.9 last season, meaning we can expect Quincy to get about 24 a game since he fits their comparison best.